http://brainstormtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2009/04/23/how-the-app-store-got-to-1-billion-downloads/
As I already debated in a previous post, the question one has to ask at this point is just how much more can the App Store grow? When will applications be simply too many for users to handle? Will this degenerate in app fatigue and backlash at Apple?
It’s interesting to see how Apple will manage this increased complexity of the App Store, given the historic efforts of the company to keep things as simple as possible for their users.The increasing clutter on the App Store is affecting users, developers and ultimately Apple. Let's look a bit closer at how this happens.
USERS
Now, more is normally better for consumers. More variety means more choice, more competition among providers which might lead to better apps for users, at lower prices. I am not questioning that. However, once the number of application reaches a certain threshold (which remains to be discovered), it is possible that the offer will be too broad for consumers to manage. When dealing with too much choice, people normally tend to panic and desist choice, being simply overwhelmed with the options available. In App Store terms, the discovery of relevant apps might take too much time and effort. On the long run, this might negatively impact the user interaction with the App Store.
Various research focusing on the usage patterns shows that consumes are already finding it difficult to keep up with the apps they install. Consumers download many applications (from 10 to 30) but end up using only 2 or 3 of them. Furthermore, applications have a limited lifespan, with an average of 20 accesses, after which consumers stop using them. And according to analytics firm AppsFire, quoted by Moconews.net, only around 20,000 apps are being downloaded to begin with.
Apple has tried to improve the app discovery with the latest version of the iTunes, which allows a faster and more direct access to the various App Store categories. A Genius feature is also being offered - this means Apple analyzes the apps available on the user's device and recommends similar ones. There are also a bunch of websites that offer various algorithms (for ex, one of them looks at users' tweets and suggests apps based on that) to help consumers sort out the mess and find the apps they are interested in. Numerous websites feature periodic reviews of applications, with rankings per category. While these do help users to some extent, the app discovery remains cumbersome.
DEVELOPERS
While for users the increasing number of apps is a double edged sword, for developers it largely means just trouble. More applications means more competitions, longer approval times, fewer chances of being noticed and increased pressure to lower prices.
Competing with 99,999 other apps is not easy. Especially when Apple is keeping a tight control of the App Store and the possibilities of promoting an app are very limited inside the store. Developers normally have to launch websites and use advertising services like the one provided by AdMob to make sure users even hear of their app's existence. The only ones with a different fortune are the lucky few who get selected by Apple and get featured in the now famous 'There's an app for that' commercials.
To add to developers woes, several companies now offer services that make the app development process accessible to non engineers. Companies like Swebapps.com, AppBreeder.com, GameSalad.com and MyAppBuilder.com offer such services for relatively low monthly fees (compared to the costs of developing one app from scratch). That basically means that the App Store is now opening up to people with no clue of Apple's SDK and no technical background, who simply follow some simple steps to create their customized application.
Given this situation, perhaps the fact that some developers have decided to sell their apps on eBay and leave the App Store should not be such a huge surprise. Surely one of the most serious blow to date was the recent decision of Joe Hewitt, the developer of Facebook's application for the iPhone to leave the store, as a sign of protest to Apple's review process.
It’s interesting to see how Apple will manage this increased complexity of the App Store, given the historic efforts of the company to keep things as simple as possible for their users.The increasing clutter on the App Store is affecting users, developers and ultimately Apple. Let's look a bit closer at how this happens.
USERS
Now, more is normally better for consumers. More variety means more choice, more competition among providers which might lead to better apps for users, at lower prices. I am not questioning that. However, once the number of application reaches a certain threshold (which remains to be discovered), it is possible that the offer will be too broad for consumers to manage. When dealing with too much choice, people normally tend to panic and desist choice, being simply overwhelmed with the options available. In App Store terms, the discovery of relevant apps might take too much time and effort. On the long run, this might negatively impact the user interaction with the App Store.
Various research focusing on the usage patterns shows that consumes are already finding it difficult to keep up with the apps they install. Consumers download many applications (from 10 to 30) but end up using only 2 or 3 of them. Furthermore, applications have a limited lifespan, with an average of 20 accesses, after which consumers stop using them. And according to analytics firm AppsFire, quoted by Moconews.net, only around 20,000 apps are being downloaded to begin with.
Apple has tried to improve the app discovery with the latest version of the iTunes, which allows a faster and more direct access to the various App Store categories. A Genius feature is also being offered - this means Apple analyzes the apps available on the user's device and recommends similar ones. There are also a bunch of websites that offer various algorithms (for ex, one of them looks at users' tweets and suggests apps based on that) to help consumers sort out the mess and find the apps they are interested in. Numerous websites feature periodic reviews of applications, with rankings per category. While these do help users to some extent, the app discovery remains cumbersome.
DEVELOPERS
While for users the increasing number of apps is a double edged sword, for developers it largely means just trouble. More applications means more competitions, longer approval times, fewer chances of being noticed and increased pressure to lower prices.
Competing with 99,999 other apps is not easy. Especially when Apple is keeping a tight control of the App Store and the possibilities of promoting an app are very limited inside the store. Developers normally have to launch websites and use advertising services like the one provided by AdMob to make sure users even hear of their app's existence. The only ones with a different fortune are the lucky few who get selected by Apple and get featured in the now famous 'There's an app for that' commercials.
To add to developers woes, several companies now offer services that make the app development process accessible to non engineers. Companies like Swebapps.com, AppBreeder.com, GameSalad.com and MyAppBuilder.com offer such services for relatively low monthly fees (compared to the costs of developing one app from scratch). That basically means that the App Store is now opening up to people with no clue of Apple's SDK and no technical background, who simply follow some simple steps to create their customized application.
Given this situation, perhaps the fact that some developers have decided to sell their apps on eBay and leave the App Store should not be such a huge surprise. Surely one of the most serious blow to date was the recent decision of Joe Hewitt, the developer of Facebook's application for the iPhone to leave the store, as a sign of protest to Apple's review process.
APPLE
As already said, Apple's recent relationship with developers has been spiny, largely because of its apps review and approval process. The closed ecosystem characterizing the App Store has also been criticized. However, many developers still choose the App Store and its platform in favor of the other app stores and platforms. The increasing competition faced might result in more developers leaving the App Store, since they will no longer be able to cover the costs of developing the app (estimated at several thousand dollars).
Apple may either choose to provide some increased assistance to developers and re-ensure them of guaranteed success on the platform, or decide to stand back and let a natural selection of the strongest apps take place.
Wrapping up...
The App Store is definitely central to the success of the iPhone. I recall the early days of the iPhone and the high number of skeptics of its success. To be fair, the phone did not take off from day 1, and many considered it was too poor from a technological point of view to claim such a price premium and hope to challenge the big guys from Nokia and the like. But then came the App Store. And just like the iTunes store with iPod, the demand for iPhone exploded. And it hasn't stopped growing since. In the process, Apple has challenged and reshaped the entire mobile industry and its full impact is yet to be finalized. No later than this week, Apple became the largest smartphone seller in the world, outing Nokia from its top place. And today, the media was rumoring a possible acquisition of Palm by Nokia. If this will actually happen (many say it will remain just a rumor), we are going to witness more interesting moves in the smartphone arena.
According to a study by Ovum, by 2014, around 18.7 billion million apps will be downloaded (from 491 million that were registered at the end of 2008). These will generate sales of $5.7 billion. This basically means there is a lot of money at stake in this young industry, and so far Apple is by far the best positioned to cash in the largest part of this pie.
Is this market going to become over-saturated? It is possible. Will consumers suffer from app fatigue? Most likely.
However, let's not forget we are looking at an incipient industry (we only started talking about apps in a serious way back in 11th July 2008, when App Store was launched). This is a 1-year old industry, still in its early phase, but quickly burning steps into the growth phase. This means at some point a shakeout will happen. What remains to be seen is what exactly will determine who stays and who goes. In time, consumers will become more picky, forcing developers to come up with more relevant apps and app store providers to reconsider the sourcing of their store to better reflect consumer preferences.
